{"title":"中国和全球儿童和青少年道路交通伤害死亡率趋势及年龄期队列分析。","authors":"Wenzhe Du, Hui Fan, Hezhou Li, Changfu Hao","doi":"10.1080/15389588.2025.2528147","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death among children and adolescents under 19. Despite a decline over the past 30 years, mortality rates remain high. This study analyzes road injury mortality rates trends among children and adolescents aged 0-19 in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we gathered age-standardized and crude mortality rates for road injuries among children and adolescents in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression models were used to describe trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) models and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) analyses evaluated mortality trends and changes from 1990 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for road traffic injuries in China was 4.38 per 100,000 population, lower than the global ASMR of 5.96 per 100,000. Joinpoint regression showed a decrease in road injury mortality for the under-5 age group in China from 1990 to 2021. For the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 age groups, mortality rates initially decreased, rose, and declined. Globally, road injury mortality rates decreased for all age groups under 15 and for females aged 15-19; for males aged 15-19, rates decreased, rose slightly, and then decreased again. The APC model indicated that the risk of road injury death varied by age, period, and cohort, with age-specific increases and decreases and a general downward trend across periods in China and globally. EAPC analysis from 2010 to 2019 showed a significant reduction in China (EAPC = -6.92%) compared to a modest decline globally (EAPC = -3.39%).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, China's road traffic injury mortality rate demonstrated a continuous decline. Since 2014, China's mortality rate from road traffic injuries has remained below the global average. However, the mortality rate among males remains higher than that of females. Notably, the mortality rate among Chinese children under the age of 5 has shown an upward trend.</p>","PeriodicalId":54422,"journal":{"name":"Traffic Injury Prevention","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends in road traffic injury mortality and age-period-cohort analysis among children and adolescents in China and globally.\",\"authors\":\"Wenzhe Du, Hui Fan, Hezhou Li, Changfu Hao\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/15389588.2025.2528147\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death among children and adolescents under 19. Despite a decline over the past 30 years, mortality rates remain high. This study analyzes road injury mortality rates trends among children and adolescents aged 0-19 in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we gathered age-standardized and crude mortality rates for road injuries among children and adolescents in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression models were used to describe trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) models and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) analyses evaluated mortality trends and changes from 1990 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for road traffic injuries in China was 4.38 per 100,000 population, lower than the global ASMR of 5.96 per 100,000. Joinpoint regression showed a decrease in road injury mortality for the under-5 age group in China from 1990 to 2021. For the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 age groups, mortality rates initially decreased, rose, and declined. Globally, road injury mortality rates decreased for all age groups under 15 and for females aged 15-19; for males aged 15-19, rates decreased, rose slightly, and then decreased again. The APC model indicated that the risk of road injury death varied by age, period, and cohort, with age-specific increases and decreases and a general downward trend across periods in China and globally. EAPC analysis from 2010 to 2019 showed a significant reduction in China (EAPC = -6.92%) compared to a modest decline globally (EAPC = -3.39%).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, China's road traffic injury mortality rate demonstrated a continuous decline. Since 2014, China's mortality rate from road traffic injuries has remained below the global average. However, the mortality rate among males remains higher than that of females. Notably, the mortality rate among Chinese children under the age of 5 has shown an upward trend.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54422,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Traffic Injury Prevention\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-10\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Traffic Injury Prevention\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2528147\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Traffic Injury Prevention","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2528147","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends in road traffic injury mortality and age-period-cohort analysis among children and adolescents in China and globally.
Objectives: Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death among children and adolescents under 19. Despite a decline over the past 30 years, mortality rates remain high. This study analyzes road injury mortality rates trends among children and adolescents aged 0-19 in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.
Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we gathered age-standardized and crude mortality rates for road injuries among children and adolescents in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression models were used to describe trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) models and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) analyses evaluated mortality trends and changes from 1990 to 2019.
Results: In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for road traffic injuries in China was 4.38 per 100,000 population, lower than the global ASMR of 5.96 per 100,000. Joinpoint regression showed a decrease in road injury mortality for the under-5 age group in China from 1990 to 2021. For the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 age groups, mortality rates initially decreased, rose, and declined. Globally, road injury mortality rates decreased for all age groups under 15 and for females aged 15-19; for males aged 15-19, rates decreased, rose slightly, and then decreased again. The APC model indicated that the risk of road injury death varied by age, period, and cohort, with age-specific increases and decreases and a general downward trend across periods in China and globally. EAPC analysis from 2010 to 2019 showed a significant reduction in China (EAPC = -6.92%) compared to a modest decline globally (EAPC = -3.39%).
Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, China's road traffic injury mortality rate demonstrated a continuous decline. Since 2014, China's mortality rate from road traffic injuries has remained below the global average. However, the mortality rate among males remains higher than that of females. Notably, the mortality rate among Chinese children under the age of 5 has shown an upward trend.
期刊介绍：
The purpose of Traffic Injury Prevention is to bridge the disciplines of medicine, engineering, public health and traffic safety in order to foster the science of traffic injury prevention. The archival journal focuses on research, interventions and evaluations within the areas of traffic safety, crash causation, injury prevention and treatment.
General topics within the journal''s scope are driver behavior, road infrastructure, emerging crash avoidance technologies, crash and injury epidemiology, alcohol and drugs, impact injury biomechanics, vehicle crashworthiness, occupant restraints, pedestrian safety, evaluation of interventions, economic consequences and emergency and clinical care with specific application to traffic injury prevention. The journal includes full length papers, review articles, case studies, brief technical notes and commentaries.
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