Comparative study of climate impacts on the optimal allocation and dispatch of renewable energy systems under Saudi Arabia’s 2030 vision

Climate model projections indicate that solar irradiation and wind patterns will likely change in future decades. The purpose of this study is to compare the optimal allocation and dispatch of solar, wind, and fossil-based energy facilities in three Saudi Arabia (SA) cities based on current climate (2020) and 2030 climate projections. This study gathers climate data projections for the selected cities and develops a dynamic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model of electricity production. Model results suggest that solar power systems are optimal for renewable energy generation. Solar generation capacities for current climate (2020) in Riyadh, Dhahran, and Jeddah were 43,300, 31,420, and 4,006 kW, respectively. The systemwide levelized cost was $0.10/kWh, and solar power systems operate 85 % of the time. If solar capacity is limited to 40 %, as assumed in the SA 2030 SA vision, Dhahran would invest in 9,900 kW of wind generation capacity. The levelized cost of wind generation would be $0.11/kWh with a capacity factor of 10 %. These results suggest that the SA vision should consider higher solar energy penetration. However, if other constraints limit solar generation capacity, then wind and some fossil-based or nuclear energy generation could supplement solar power systems.