[China's Provincial Horizontal Carbon Compensation Mechanism Based on Power Carbon Transfer].

Establishing a provincial carbon compensation mechanism is essential to achieving balanced and sustainable regional development and contribute to carbon peaking and neutrality goals. To establish a fair and reasonable horizontal provincial carbon compensation mechanism， this study took 31 provinces （cities and autonomous regions） in China as the research object. First， we measured the carbon transfer volume caused by power generation and consumption in 2021 and identified the carbon compensation subject and object. Second， we used the CO₂ shadow price calculated by the slack measurement model Slacks-Based Measure （SBM） as the unit price of carbon to determine the carbon compensation standard. Then， carbon emission responsibility allocation adopted a shared responsibility system， using the economic contribution coefficient and ecological carrying coefficient to modify the Pearl growth curve model， determining the carbon compensation coefficient and using its normalized value as the basis for carbon emission responsibility allocation. Finally， the provincial carbon compensation was realized through the fiscal transfer theory. The results showed that the national average CO₂ shadow price was 1 944.84 yuan·t^-1， and the shadow price was related to the level of economic development， industrial structure effect， and other factors. The total amount of carbon compensation in each province was 54.202 billion yuan in 2021， and 12 regions were compensated provinces， such as Shanxi， and compensation provinces included 19 regions， such as Guangdong. The overall spatial distribution of carbon compensation showed a state of "paying from east to west." In the end， suggestions for constructing the provincial horizontal carbon compensation system were made from multiple perspectives.