Impact of economic growth and agricultural expansion on forest cover in ASEAN: New evidence for forest transition theory

This research aims to analyze the impact of economic growth and agricultural expansion on forest resources in six developing ASEAN countries. Data from 1990 to 2022 are employed. The estimation methods applied are regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, feasible generalized least squares, and quantile regression. The results find that economic growth leads to forest resources decline in the early stage, while with the continuous economic development and increase of people's awareness about environment protection, economic growth starts promoting forests recovery in ASEAN countries. It implies that the relation between economic growth and forest cover is a U-shaped trajectory, which supports Forest Transition Theory. Moreover, this research finds the impact of economic growth on forest resources loss is much stronger in lower quantiles and weaker in higher quantiles, suggesting countries initially with lower forest cover are more vulnerable economic growth pressures. Agricultural expansion is also found a significant driver of forest cover decline in ASEAN. Additionally, regression results show that population growth significantly contributes to forest cover decrease in ASEAN. The empirical results in this study provide insightful information to help policymakers strike a balance between sustainable forest management and economic development in ASEAN.