Hongli Xu, Xiaoyan Qin, Guoli Zhao, Zeguo Feng, Shaohua You
{"title":"1990年至2021年全球紧张性头痛负担的性别分析和15年预测：对2021年GBD数据的系统回顾","authors":"Hongli Xu, Xiaoyan Qin, Guoli Zhao, Zeguo Feng, Shaohua You","doi":"10.2147/JPR.S512335","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tension-type headache (TTH) is a prevalent primary headache disorder significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare resource utilization, with females typically bearing a higher disease burden. However, comprehensive analyses and predictive studies on the global TTH burden stratified by gender are currently lacking.</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to analyze the global burden of tension - type headache by sex from 1990 to 2021 and conducted a 15 - year projection (up to 2036).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a systematic review of GBD 2021 data, employing Joinpoint regression analysis and decomposition analysis to assess TTH incidence, prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model for a 15-year predictive analysis of TTH burden trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, global female TTH cases rose from 669.54 million (95% UI: 586.2-751.8 million) to 1.04 billion (95% UI: 923.0-1.1 billion), with incidence increasing from 242.9 million (95% UI: 218.8-267.0 million) to 369.86 million (95% UI: 332.5-407.2 million). Male cases grew from 616.82 million (95% UI: 537.2-696.4 million) to 970 million (95% UI: 851.0-1.0 billion). Decomposition analysis indicated population growth was the primary driver of the increase in female TTH prevalence. Projections suggest that by 2036, the incidence will reach 9,174.84 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 8,854.8-9,494.9), prevalence will be 25,135.1 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 23,977.2-26,283.0), YLD rate will be 62.76 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 58.8-66.7), and DALY rate will be 60.97 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 56.7-65.2).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study highlights the significance of gender in TTH burden, particularly the heightened risk for females. Through temporal trend analysis and predictive modeling, we provide insights into future TTH disease trajectories, aiding global public health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation.</p>","PeriodicalId":16661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pain Research","volume":"18 ","pages":"3505-3517"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12260232/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis and 15-Year Projections of the Global Burden of Tension-Type Headache by Sex from 1990 to 2021: A Systematic Review of GBD 2021 Data.\",\"authors\":\"Hongli Xu, Xiaoyan Qin, Guoli Zhao, Zeguo Feng, Shaohua You\",\"doi\":\"10.2147/JPR.S512335\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tension-type headache (TTH) is a prevalent primary headache disorder significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare resource utilization, with females typically bearing a higher disease burden. However, comprehensive analyses and predictive studies on the global TTH burden stratified by gender are currently lacking.</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to analyze the global burden of tension - type headache by sex from 1990 to 2021 and conducted a 15 - year projection (up to 2036).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a systematic review of GBD 2021 data, employing Joinpoint regression analysis and decomposition analysis to assess TTH incidence, prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model for a 15-year predictive analysis of TTH burden trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, global female TTH cases rose from 669.54 million (95% UI: 586.2-751.8 million) to 1.04 billion (95% UI: 923.0-1.1 billion), with incidence increasing from 242.9 million (95% UI: 218.8-267.0 million) to 369.86 million (95% UI: 332.5-407.2 million). Male cases grew from 616.82 million (95% UI: 537.2-696.4 million) to 970 million (95% UI: 851.0-1.0 billion). Decomposition analysis indicated population growth was the primary driver of the increase in female TTH prevalence. Projections suggest that by 2036, the incidence will reach 9,174.84 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 8,854.8-9,494.9), prevalence will be 25,135.1 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 23,977.2-26,283.0), YLD rate will be 62.76 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 58.8-66.7), and DALY rate will be 60.97 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 56.7-65.2).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study highlights the significance of gender in TTH burden, particularly the heightened risk for females. Through temporal trend analysis and predictive modeling, we provide insights into future TTH disease trajectories, aiding global public health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16661,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Pain Research\",\"volume\":\"18 \",\"pages\":\"3505-3517\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12260232/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Pain Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2147/JPR.S512335\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Pain Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2147/JPR.S512335","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis and 15-Year Projections of the Global Burden of Tension-Type Headache by Sex from 1990 to 2021: A Systematic Review of GBD 2021 Data.
Background: Tension-type headache (TTH) is a prevalent primary headache disorder significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare resource utilization, with females typically bearing a higher disease burden. However, comprehensive analyses and predictive studies on the global TTH burden stratified by gender are currently lacking.
Aim: This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to analyze the global burden of tension - type headache by sex from 1990 to 2021 and conducted a 15 - year projection (up to 2036).
Methods: We conducted a systematic review of GBD 2021 data, employing Joinpoint regression analysis and decomposition analysis to assess TTH incidence, prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model for a 15-year predictive analysis of TTH burden trends.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, global female TTH cases rose from 669.54 million (95% UI: 586.2-751.8 million) to 1.04 billion (95% UI: 923.0-1.1 billion), with incidence increasing from 242.9 million (95% UI: 218.8-267.0 million) to 369.86 million (95% UI: 332.5-407.2 million). Male cases grew from 616.82 million (95% UI: 537.2-696.4 million) to 970 million (95% UI: 851.0-1.0 billion). Decomposition analysis indicated population growth was the primary driver of the increase in female TTH prevalence. Projections suggest that by 2036, the incidence will reach 9,174.84 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 8,854.8-9,494.9), prevalence will be 25,135.1 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 23,977.2-26,283.0), YLD rate will be 62.76 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 58.8-66.7), and DALY rate will be 60.97 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 56.7-65.2).
Conclusion: This study highlights the significance of gender in TTH burden, particularly the heightened risk for females. Through temporal trend analysis and predictive modeling, we provide insights into future TTH disease trajectories, aiding global public health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Pain Research is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal that welcomes laboratory and clinical findings in the fields of pain research and the prevention and management of pain. Original research, reviews, symposium reports, hypothesis formation and commentaries are all considered for publication. Additionally, the journal now welcomes the submission of pain-policy-related editorials and commentaries, particularly in regard to ethical, regulatory, forensic, and other legal issues in pain medicine, and to the education of pain practitioners and researchers.
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