Pathway to carbon neutrality in the iron and steel industry of China: a LEAP-China-IS model assessment

As the world's largest steel producer, China faces mounting pressure to decarbonize its iron and steel industry, a major contributor to national emissions. This study integrates a top-down dynamic material flow analysis with bottom-up LEAP model to forecast the sector's carbon emissions through 2060 under multiple scenarios. Three macro-scenarios are evaluated—Baseline, Low-carbon, and Carbon neutrality, alongside five sub-scenarios—changes in production structure, energy efficiency, resource utilization, near-zero metallurgical technologies, and energy structure. The results indicate that total carbon emissions under the three scenarios will reach 949, 691, and 104 Mt CO₂, respectively, by 2060. In the carbon neutrality scenario, blast furnace energy consumption decreases significantly, while hydrogen metallurgy increases. Among the sub-scenarios, reducing crude steel production contributes 30.9 % to emissions reductions, while energy efficiency improvements contribute 2.8 %. Despite full deployment of hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS, residual emissions remain at 104 Mt CO₂ by 2060, necessitating carbon credit purchases to achieve net-zero. These findings highlight the limitations of technological solutions alone and call for integrated policy measures balancing production demand, innovation diffusion, and market mechanisms.