Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions of the EU tourism sector

This study examines the evolution of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the tourism sector across the European Union (EU27) over the period 2008–2022, using an integrated approach based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Tapio decoupling analysis. The novelty of this research lies in the introduction of six tourism-specific indicators—Carbon Intensity (CI), Carbon Structure (CS), Average Revenue per Tourist (ART), Tourism Spread Ratio (TSR), Tourism Pressure Index (TPI), and Number of Hospitality Structures (NHS)—to decompose the drivers of CO₂ emissions and assess their dynamic interaction with tourism growth. Empirical findings indicate that CI and ART were the primary contributors to emissions reductions accounting for −6.5 Mt. and − 3.9 Mt. respectively, consistent with previous evidence on structural and technological improvements. However, emissions were increasingly influenced by spatial concentration and infrastructure growth, as captured by NHS (+3.9 Mt) and TSR (+1.6 Mt). The Tapio analysis reveals heterogeneous decoupling trajectories among member states in the period 2008–2022, with strong decoupling observed in countries such as France, Portugal, and Sweden, while others experienced coupling or negative decoupling patterns. Overall, a recessive decoupling, index equal to 1.052, is estimated for EU in the period 2008–2022. These results underscore the need for integrated mitigation strategies that combine technological innovation, spatial planning, and sustainable infrastructure development. The study contributes to the energy-tourism policy interface by offering a replicable framework for monitoring decarbonization progress in tourism-intensive economies.