哥伦比亚的航空排放:对过去和未来预算的评估

IF 5.3 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Yiniva Camargo Caicedo , Laura C. Mantilla-Romo , Jhon Jairo Vargas Sánchez , Fredy Tovar Bernal , Andrés M. Vélez-Pereira
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引用次数: 0

摘要

航空业在过去十年中经历了快速增长,引发了对环境的担忧。本研究利用IPCC 3A级方法和ARIMA模型评估了哥伦比亚2010年至2023年航空排放的贡献,并预测了其到2030年的演变。二氧化碳(CO2)、氮氧化物(NOX)、一氧化碳(CO)、硫氧化物(SOX)、碳氢化合物(HC)和颗粒物(PM)的排放量是根据燃料消耗估算的。结果表明,爬升-巡航-下降(CCD)循环约占燃油消耗的70%,占二氧化碳和氮氧化物排放的大部分。与此同时,哥伦比亚的缓解战略主要侧重于起飞和降落周期。预测表明,未来十年的排放量将增加30%,这突出表明需要制定更雄心勃勃的政策。推广可持续航空燃料(SAF)和改善空中交通管理等措施似乎不足以遏制排放增长,也不足以与哥伦比亚在《巴黎协定》下的气候承诺保持一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Aeronautical emissions in Colombia: An assessment of past and future budgets
The aviation sector has experienced rapid growth in the last decade, raising environmental concerns. This study assessed the contribution of aeronautical emissions in Colombia from 2010 to 2023 and projected their evolution until 2030 using the IPCC Tier 3A methodology and an ARIMA model. Emissions for carbon dioxide (CO2), Nitrogen oxides (NOX), Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulfur oxides (SOX), Hydrocarbons (HC), and Particulate Matter (PM) were estimated based on fuel consumption. Results show that the Climb-Cruise-Descent (CCD) cycle accounts for approximately 70 % of fuel consumption and the majority of CO2 and NOx emissions. At the same time, Colombia's mitigation strategies have primarily focused on the Take-off and Landing (LTO) cycle. Projections indicate a 30 % increase in emissions over the next decade, highlighting the need for more ambitious policies. Measures such as promoting Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and improving air traffic management appear insufficient to curb emissions growth and align with Colombia's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.
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来源期刊
Cleaner Engineering and Technology
Cleaner Engineering and Technology Engineering-Engineering (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
218
审稿时长
21 weeks
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