Michaela Mark, Samuel Muli, Ines Perrar, Christina-Alexandra Conzen, Ute Nöthlings
{"title":"假设和数据驱动的年轻人疾病风险评分——德国DONALD队列研究分析","authors":"Michaela Mark, Samuel Muli, Ines Perrar, Christina-Alexandra Conzen, Ute Nöthlings","doi":"10.1016/j.numecd.2025.104168","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background and aims: </strong>Disease risk scores (DRSs) can identify individuals at risk for chronic diseases, yet little is known about their potential use in young adult populations. We derived DRSs using two approaches (hypothesis- and data-driven) to describe subgroups of young adults regarding their disease risk profile.</p><p><strong>Methods and results: </strong>In the DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) cohort study, we applied seven hypothesis-driven DRSs among 492 adult participants (20-47 years) and performed cluster analysis (hierarchical, k-means) with 12 continuous metabolic risk factors (n = 457). We compared the DRSs using age- and sex-adjusted linear regressions and chi-square tests. The importance of each score component was examined using forward selection and age- and sex-adjusted logistic regressions. Longitudinal tracking of DRSs was assessed via concordance in tertile and cluster membership. Two clusters (1: \"comparably high-risk\"; 2: \"comparably low-risk\") were identified. Participants in cluster 1 (41.1 %) compared to cluster 2 showed: higher median values in all hypothesis-driven DRSs, higher absolute type 2 diabetes risk (German Diabetes Risk Score), elevated liver parameters (Fatty Liver Index, Hepatic Steatosis Index), a more unfavourable cardiovascular health (Life's Simple 7), and higher absolute coronary heart disease risk (Framingham Risk Score - Adult Treatment Panel III (females)) (P < 0.05). Waist circumference and BMI were most important. The DRSs tracked considerably within a median follow-up of 4.9 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Differences in DRSs could be applied to a rather young adult population. These early disease risks are particularly shaped by anthropometric markers and are relatively stable over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":49722,"journal":{"name":"Nutrition Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"104168"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Hypothesis- and data-driven disease risk scores among young adults - An analysis in the German DONALD cohort study.\",\"authors\":\"Michaela Mark, Samuel Muli, Ines Perrar, Christina-Alexandra Conzen, Ute Nöthlings\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.numecd.2025.104168\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background and aims: </strong>Disease risk scores (DRSs) can identify individuals at risk for chronic diseases, yet little is known about their potential use in young adult populations. We derived DRSs using two approaches (hypothesis- and data-driven) to describe subgroups of young adults regarding their disease risk profile.</p><p><strong>Methods and results: </strong>In the DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) cohort study, we applied seven hypothesis-driven DRSs among 492 adult participants (20-47 years) and performed cluster analysis (hierarchical, k-means) with 12 continuous metabolic risk factors (n = 457). We compared the DRSs using age- and sex-adjusted linear regressions and chi-square tests. The importance of each score component was examined using forward selection and age- and sex-adjusted logistic regressions. Longitudinal tracking of DRSs was assessed via concordance in tertile and cluster membership. Two clusters (1: \\\"comparably high-risk\\\"; 2: \\\"comparably low-risk\\\") were identified. Participants in cluster 1 (41.1 %) compared to cluster 2 showed: higher median values in all hypothesis-driven DRSs, higher absolute type 2 diabetes risk (German Diabetes Risk Score), elevated liver parameters (Fatty Liver Index, Hepatic Steatosis Index), a more unfavourable cardiovascular health (Life's Simple 7), and higher absolute coronary heart disease risk (Framingham Risk Score - Adult Treatment Panel III (females)) (P < 0.05). Waist circumference and BMI were most important. The DRSs tracked considerably within a median follow-up of 4.9 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Differences in DRSs could be applied to a rather young adult population. 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Hypothesis- and data-driven disease risk scores among young adults - An analysis in the German DONALD cohort study.
Background and aims: Disease risk scores (DRSs) can identify individuals at risk for chronic diseases, yet little is known about their potential use in young adult populations. We derived DRSs using two approaches (hypothesis- and data-driven) to describe subgroups of young adults regarding their disease risk profile.
Methods and results: In the DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) cohort study, we applied seven hypothesis-driven DRSs among 492 adult participants (20-47 years) and performed cluster analysis (hierarchical, k-means) with 12 continuous metabolic risk factors (n = 457). We compared the DRSs using age- and sex-adjusted linear regressions and chi-square tests. The importance of each score component was examined using forward selection and age- and sex-adjusted logistic regressions. Longitudinal tracking of DRSs was assessed via concordance in tertile and cluster membership. Two clusters (1: "comparably high-risk"; 2: "comparably low-risk") were identified. Participants in cluster 1 (41.1 %) compared to cluster 2 showed: higher median values in all hypothesis-driven DRSs, higher absolute type 2 diabetes risk (German Diabetes Risk Score), elevated liver parameters (Fatty Liver Index, Hepatic Steatosis Index), a more unfavourable cardiovascular health (Life's Simple 7), and higher absolute coronary heart disease risk (Framingham Risk Score - Adult Treatment Panel III (females)) (P < 0.05). Waist circumference and BMI were most important. The DRSs tracked considerably within a median follow-up of 4.9 years.
Conclusion: Differences in DRSs could be applied to a rather young adult population. These early disease risks are particularly shaped by anthropometric markers and are relatively stable over time.
期刊介绍:
Nutrition, Metabolism & Cardiovascular Diseases is a forum designed to focus on the powerful interplay between nutritional and metabolic alterations, and cardiovascular disorders. It aims to be a highly qualified tool to help refine strategies against the nutrition-related epidemics of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. By presenting original clinical and experimental findings, it introduces readers and authors into a rapidly developing area of clinical and preventive medicine, including also vascular biology. Of particular concern are the origins, the mechanisms and the means to prevent and control diabetes, atherosclerosis, hypertension, and other nutrition-related diseases.