{"title":"2012-2022年伊拉克妇女乳腺癌和卵巢癌发病率趋势及其与生育模式的关系","authors":"Jasim Naeem Al-Asadi","doi":"10.18295/2075-0528.2863","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aimed to estimate the incidence trends of female breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) among women in Iraq and their relation to fertility patterns.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective study utilised the Iraqi Cancer Registry annual reports for the years 2012-2022 and the World Bank data for Iraqi crude birth rate and total fertility data for the years 1992-2002. Simple linear regression analysis examined the relationship between these variables and incidence rates of BC and OC.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 63,446 women were newly diagnosed with BC from 2012-2022. The overall age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of BC was 46.68/100,000 females. It increased significantly from 36.61/100,000 in 2012 to 61.89/100,000 in 2022 with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 4.83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.69-7.08; <i>P</i> < 0.001). The overall ASIR rate of OC was 6.22/100,000 women. It increased significantly from 4.35/100,000 in 2012 to 6.90/100,000 in 2022 with an AAPC of 4.58% (95% CI: 2.40-6.88; <i>P</i> < 0.001). The ASIR of BC was negatively and significantly associated with crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility (TFR) rate (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.727; <i>P</i> = 0.001 and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.728; <i>P</i> = 0.001, respectively). The ASIR of OC was negatively and significantly associated with CBR and TFR (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.699; <i>P</i> = 0.001 and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.696; <i>P</i> = 0.001, respectively).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Iraqi women are experiencing a rising incidence of breast and ovarian cancers over time. Lower fertility rates may partly play a role in this trend. Research and initiatives are necessary to identify and control the factors that are increasing this risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":22083,"journal":{"name":"Sultan Qaboos University Medical Journal","volume":"25 1","pages":"499-505"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12255333/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Breast and Ovarian Cancers' Incidence Trends Among Iraqi Women During 2012-2022 and Their Relationship to Fertility Patterns.\",\"authors\":\"Jasim Naeem Al-Asadi\",\"doi\":\"10.18295/2075-0528.2863\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aimed to estimate the incidence trends of female breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) among women in Iraq and their relation to fertility patterns.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective study utilised the Iraqi Cancer Registry annual reports for the years 2012-2022 and the World Bank data for Iraqi crude birth rate and total fertility data for the years 1992-2002. Simple linear regression analysis examined the relationship between these variables and incidence rates of BC and OC.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 63,446 women were newly diagnosed with BC from 2012-2022. The overall age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of BC was 46.68/100,000 females. It increased significantly from 36.61/100,000 in 2012 to 61.89/100,000 in 2022 with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 4.83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.69-7.08; <i>P</i> < 0.001). The overall ASIR rate of OC was 6.22/100,000 women. It increased significantly from 4.35/100,000 in 2012 to 6.90/100,000 in 2022 with an AAPC of 4.58% (95% CI: 2.40-6.88; <i>P</i> < 0.001). The ASIR of BC was negatively and significantly associated with crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility (TFR) rate (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.727; <i>P</i> = 0.001 and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.728; <i>P</i> = 0.001, respectively). The ASIR of OC was negatively and significantly associated with CBR and TFR (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.699; <i>P</i> = 0.001 and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.696; <i>P</i> = 0.001, respectively).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Iraqi women are experiencing a rising incidence of breast and ovarian cancers over time. Lower fertility rates may partly play a role in this trend. Research and initiatives are necessary to identify and control the factors that are increasing this risk.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":22083,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Sultan Qaboos University Medical Journal\",\"volume\":\"25 1\",\"pages\":\"499-505\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12255333/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Sultan Qaboos University Medical Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18295/2075-0528.2863\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sultan Qaboos University Medical Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18295/2075-0528.2863","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
Breast and Ovarian Cancers' Incidence Trends Among Iraqi Women During 2012-2022 and Their Relationship to Fertility Patterns.
Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the incidence trends of female breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) among women in Iraq and their relation to fertility patterns.
Methods: This retrospective study utilised the Iraqi Cancer Registry annual reports for the years 2012-2022 and the World Bank data for Iraqi crude birth rate and total fertility data for the years 1992-2002. Simple linear regression analysis examined the relationship between these variables and incidence rates of BC and OC.
Results: A total of 63,446 women were newly diagnosed with BC from 2012-2022. The overall age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of BC was 46.68/100,000 females. It increased significantly from 36.61/100,000 in 2012 to 61.89/100,000 in 2022 with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 4.83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.69-7.08; P < 0.001). The overall ASIR rate of OC was 6.22/100,000 women. It increased significantly from 4.35/100,000 in 2012 to 6.90/100,000 in 2022 with an AAPC of 4.58% (95% CI: 2.40-6.88; P < 0.001). The ASIR of BC was negatively and significantly associated with crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility (TFR) rate (R2 = 0.727; P = 0.001 and R2 = 0.728; P = 0.001, respectively). The ASIR of OC was negatively and significantly associated with CBR and TFR (R2 = 0.699; P = 0.001 and R2 = 0.696; P = 0.001, respectively).
Conclusions: Iraqi women are experiencing a rising incidence of breast and ovarian cancers over time. Lower fertility rates may partly play a role in this trend. Research and initiatives are necessary to identify and control the factors that are increasing this risk.
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