Physical activity trajectories and incidence of cardiovascular risk factors: a prospective study.

Background and aims: Physical activity (PA) is a protective factor against cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the association between changes in PA and CVD are less studied. We assessed the effect of PA on CVD risk factors.

Methods and results: Data from the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study, a prospective, population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland, for periods 2009-2012 and 2014-2017 (subjective PA) and 2014-2017 and 2018-2021 (objective PA). Subjective and objective PA trajectories were assessed by questionnaire and wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer, respectively. Two different software (GENEActive and GGIR) assessed objective PA from raw accelerometry data. 1856 participants (53.2 % women, 55.8 ± 9.4 years) had subjective PA trajectories. Participants who became sedentary lost more weight, while no association was found between PA trajectories and changes in blood pressure (BP) or diabetes markers. 1446 participants (51.9 % women, 61.4 ± 9.4 years) had objective PA trajectories assessed by GENEActive, and 1447 participants (51.5 % women, 61.6 ± 9.4 years) had objective PA trajectories assessed by GGIR. For both software, a lower BMI and a lower likelihood or presenting with hypertension was found among participants who improved or who maintained a high PA level, while no association was found between PA trajectories and changes in BP or diabetes markers.

Conclusions: in this population-based study, participants who increased or maintained a high PA level had lower BMI increase than participants who decreased their PA or remained in the lower PA level. No association was found between PA trajectories and changes in BP or glucose markers.