使用联合点回归和贝叶斯年龄期队列模型分析1990年至2021年60岁及以上成年人压疮的趋势

IF 3.9 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Yueshan Pang, Yanbin Du, Wei Zhou, Shan Liu, Yiran Yuan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

压疮是一个全球性的公共卫生问题,对患者的痛苦和医疗保健系统的成本造成重大影响,因此有必要了解其流行病学趋势和负担。本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021研究的数据,对60岁及以上人群的压疮趋势和负担进行系统分析,为预防和治疗策略提供信息。数据取自GBD 2021数据集,时间跨度为1990年至2021年。我们分析了60岁及以上人群中压疮的发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)。联合点回归分析用于评估时间趋势,贝叶斯年龄期队列(BAPC)模型用于预测未来负担。利用社会人口统计指数(SDI)数据评估社会经济因素对疾病负担的影响。从1990年到2021年,全球60岁及以上人群的压疮发病率有所增加。2021年,全球事件数量为1,725,111.46起。压疮的负担与SDI水平密切相关:SDI越高,压疮的发生率越大;SDI越低,压疮死亡率越高。美国的病例数和发病率最高。BAPC模型预测,未来美国、印度、巴巴多斯、毛里求斯、马来西亚和格鲁吉亚的压疮病例将继续增加。60岁及以上人群的压疮负担在过去三十年中显著增加,对全球公共卫生构成重大挑战。积极的预防和管理措施对于减轻疾病负担、提高患者生活质量和降低医疗费用至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Trend analysis of pressure ulcers in adults 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021 using jointpoint regression and Bayesian age period cohort models.

Trend analysis of pressure ulcers in adults 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021 using jointpoint regression and Bayesian age period cohort models.

Trend analysis of pressure ulcers in adults 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021 using jointpoint regression and Bayesian age period cohort models.

Trend analysis of pressure ulcers in adults 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021 using jointpoint regression and Bayesian age period cohort models.

Pressure ulcers are a global public health problem that contributes significantly to patient suffering and healthcare system costs, necessitating an understanding of their epidemiological trends and burdens. This study aims to perform a systematic analysis of pressure ulcer trends and burdens in individuals aged 60 and above using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 dataset spanning 1990 to 2021. We analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends, and a Bayesian age period cohort (BAPC) model was applied to forecast future burdens. Sociodemographic index (SDI) data were utilized to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic factors on disease burden. The global incidence of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above increased from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the number of incident cases was 1,725,111.46 worldwide. The burden of pressure ulcers is closely related to the level of SDI: the higher the SDI is, the greater the incidence of pressure ulcers; the lower the SDI is, the greater the pressure ulcer mortality. The United States had the highest number of cases and incidence. The BAPC model projected a continued increase in pressure ulcer cases in the United States, India, Barbados, Mauritius, Malaysia, and Georgia in the future. The burden of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above has significantly increased over the past three decades, posing a substantial challenge to global public health. Active prevention and management measures are crucial to reduce the disease burden, improve patient quality of life, and decrease healthcare costs.

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来源期刊
Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports Natural Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
4.30%
发文量
19567
审稿时长
3.9 months
期刊介绍: We publish original research from all areas of the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering. You can learn more about what we publish by browsing our specific scientific subject areas below or explore Scientific Reports by browsing all articles and collections. Scientific Reports has a 2-year impact factor: 4.380 (2021), and is the 6th most-cited journal in the world, with more than 540,000 citations in 2020 (Clarivate Analytics, 2021). •Engineering Engineering covers all aspects of engineering, technology, and applied science. It plays a crucial role in the development of technologies to address some of the world''s biggest challenges, helping to save lives and improve the way we live. •Physical sciences Physical sciences are those academic disciplines that aim to uncover the underlying laws of nature — often written in the language of mathematics. It is a collective term for areas of study including astronomy, chemistry, materials science and physics. •Earth and environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences cover all aspects of Earth and planetary science and broadly encompass solid Earth processes, surface and atmospheric dynamics, Earth system history, climate and climate change, marine and freshwater systems, and ecology. It also considers the interactions between humans and these systems. •Biological sciences Biological sciences encompass all the divisions of natural sciences examining various aspects of vital processes. The concept includes anatomy, physiology, cell biology, biochemistry and biophysics, and covers all organisms from microorganisms, animals to plants. •Health sciences The health sciences study health, disease and healthcare. This field of study aims to develop knowledge, interventions and technology for use in healthcare to improve the treatment of patients.
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