Elderly population migration and urban energy consumption: Voluntary relocation or forced displacement?

The Seventh National Census shows that the migrant population reached 376 million in 2020, while those living away from their households totaled 493 million. Against the backdrop of an accelerating aging process, the migration of the elderly, driven by various factors, has garnered significant attention. This growing mobile group is influencing energy consumption (EC) in various regions. Based on data from China's prefecture-level cities, this study explores how the migration of the elderly population affects EC. The findings indicate that elderly migration results in both aging and migration effects, which respectively demonstrate that elderly populations' demand for health and medical services, as well as their reliance on electricity and transportation, significantly contribute to increased EC. By focusing on three scenarios, this study tests the moderating effects of factors that drive the elderly population migration. The results show that family relocation, intergenerational care, and healthcare all exert negative moderating effects. In the heterogeneity analysis, we find that rural migrants, female populations, and those born in peaceful times display a stronger tendency towards EC. The Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model predicts continued growth in EC, and quantile regression confirms that regions with higher EC see greater contributions from migrants. This study highlights the elderly migrant population and applies demographic theory to the analysis of EC, offering new research approaches and perspectives for EC management and policy development.