{"title":"1990年至2021年慢性乙型肝炎相关肝硬化的全球、区域和国家负担以及到2050年的预测：来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的发现","authors":"Jinyan Sun, Jin Guo","doi":"10.14309/ctg.0000000000000890","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a widespread liver infection caused by Hepatitis B virus (HBV), affecting 296 million people globally. The disease often progresses to severe conditions like cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver failure. This study aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 and projected the disease development from 2022-2050.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study utilized data from the GBD 2021 database to analyze the global burden of CHB-related cirrhosis. Metrics such as incidence, prevalence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs were examined. Descriptive analysis explored the burden distribution by gender, age, sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels and country in 1990 and 2021. Trend analysis used Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to assess changes in age-standardized rates over time. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Exponential Smoothing (ES) model were applied to predict future trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, CHB-related cirrhosis caused 4.8 million incident cases, 432,000 deaths, and 13.9 million DALYs globally, with decreasing trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) since 1990. Males exhibited higher burdens than females. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASIR in those <5 years and the highest ASMR in the 85-89 age group. Regionally, the greatest burden was observed in low SDI areas, with Sierra Leone and Egypt showing the highest rates. Projections indicate stable mortality but declining incidence and slightly increasing DALYs globally by 2050, with minor sex-specific variations.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study highlights progress in reducing CHB-related cirrhosis. Targeted efforts and lessons from successful interventions are essential to further alleviate this burden and improve outcomes worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":10278,"journal":{"name":"Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional and national burden of chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a finding from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.\",\"authors\":\"Jinyan Sun, Jin Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.14309/ctg.0000000000000890\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a widespread liver infection caused by Hepatitis B virus (HBV), affecting 296 million people globally. The disease often progresses to severe conditions like cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver failure. This study aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 and projected the disease development from 2022-2050.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study utilized data from the GBD 2021 database to analyze the global burden of CHB-related cirrhosis. Metrics such as incidence, prevalence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs were examined. Descriptive analysis explored the burden distribution by gender, age, sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels and country in 1990 and 2021. Trend analysis used Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to assess changes in age-standardized rates over time. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Exponential Smoothing (ES) model were applied to predict future trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, CHB-related cirrhosis caused 4.8 million incident cases, 432,000 deaths, and 13.9 million DALYs globally, with decreasing trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) since 1990. Males exhibited higher burdens than females. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASIR in those <5 years and the highest ASMR in the 85-89 age group. Regionally, the greatest burden was observed in low SDI areas, with Sierra Leone and Egypt showing the highest rates. Projections indicate stable mortality but declining incidence and slightly increasing DALYs globally by 2050, with minor sex-specific variations.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study highlights progress in reducing CHB-related cirrhosis. Targeted efforts and lessons from successful interventions are essential to further alleviate this burden and improve outcomes worldwide.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10278,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.14309/ctg.0000000000000890\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.14309/ctg.0000000000000890","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global, regional and national burden of chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a finding from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Background: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a widespread liver infection caused by Hepatitis B virus (HBV), affecting 296 million people globally. The disease often progresses to severe conditions like cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver failure. This study aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 and projected the disease development from 2022-2050.
Methods: This study utilized data from the GBD 2021 database to analyze the global burden of CHB-related cirrhosis. Metrics such as incidence, prevalence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs were examined. Descriptive analysis explored the burden distribution by gender, age, sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels and country in 1990 and 2021. Trend analysis used Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to assess changes in age-standardized rates over time. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Exponential Smoothing (ES) model were applied to predict future trends.
Results: In 2021, CHB-related cirrhosis caused 4.8 million incident cases, 432,000 deaths, and 13.9 million DALYs globally, with decreasing trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) since 1990. Males exhibited higher burdens than females. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASIR in those <5 years and the highest ASMR in the 85-89 age group. Regionally, the greatest burden was observed in low SDI areas, with Sierra Leone and Egypt showing the highest rates. Projections indicate stable mortality but declining incidence and slightly increasing DALYs globally by 2050, with minor sex-specific variations.
Conclusion: The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study highlights progress in reducing CHB-related cirrhosis. Targeted efforts and lessons from successful interventions are essential to further alleviate this burden and improve outcomes worldwide.
期刊介绍：
Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology (CTG), published on behalf of the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG), is a peer-reviewed open access online journal dedicated to innovative clinical work in the field of gastroenterology and hepatology. CTG hopes to fulfill an unmet need for clinicians and scientists by welcoming novel cohort studies, early-phase clinical trials, qualitative and quantitative epidemiologic research, hypothesis-generating research, studies of novel mechanisms and methodologies including public health interventions, and integration of approaches across organs and disciplines. CTG also welcomes hypothesis-generating small studies, methods papers, and translational research with clear applications to human physiology or disease.
Colon and small bowel
Endoscopy and novel diagnostics
Esophagus
Functional GI disorders
Immunology of the GI tract
Microbiology of the GI tract
Inflammatory bowel disease
Pancreas and biliary tract
Liver
Pathology
Pediatrics
Preventative medicine
Nutrition/obesity
Stomach.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
