Analysing quantitative microbiological risk assessments: from modelling approaches to informed decision-making and risk communication

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) combines quantitative data on microbial behaviour with product and process conditions throughout the entire food chain, including the consumer phase. This approach aims to strengthen food safety controls and to support consumer communication regarding food safety and public health. This article reviews various modelling approaches used to estimate growth parameters (lag phase, growth rate, maximum population density) to determine the dose at the moment of consumption and to estimate the probability of illness and the number of illness cases. Also, this review illustrates and compares the effects of model choices, model assumptions, and modelling approaches on risk estimates and discusses various sensitivity and scenario analyses. These analyses of the risk assessment shed light on relevant aspects to analyse in risk assessments and show how outcomes of QMRAs can support decision-making to mitigate risks and to develop risk-based communication, ultimately enhancing food safety.