卫星时代各数据集海面温度趋势的相应差异

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
S. Menemenlis, G. A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, S. Fueglistaler, S. P. Raghuraman
{"title":"卫星时代各数据集海面温度趋势的相应差异","authors":"S. Menemenlis, G. A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, S. Fueglistaler, S. P. Raghuraman","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02362-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global surface temperatures since the 1980s, when near-global satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements became available, are presumed to be well known. Satellite-era warming trends in four commonly used global (land and ocean) temperature reconstructions agree closely, yet whether SST datasets also agree is unclear. Here we show that trends in four widely used SST datasets show first-order differences, with 1982–2024 60° S to 60° N trends ranging from 0.108 to 0.184 °C per decade. These large discrepancies are perplexing given the agreement between global temperature datasets and the fact that 70% of the surface of the Earth is covered by ocean, but are legible upon recognizing that global temperature datasets use two SST fields whose trends agree more closely than those of the four SST datasets. Considering the trend uncertainty across SST datasets widens the range of plausible global temperature trends and impacts interpretations of recent record global temperatures, with implications for observational and model-based climate studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Consequential differences in satellite-era sea surface temperature trends across datasets\",\"authors\":\"S. Menemenlis, G. A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, S. Fueglistaler, S. P. Raghuraman\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41558-025-02362-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Global surface temperatures since the 1980s, when near-global satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements became available, are presumed to be well known. Satellite-era warming trends in four commonly used global (land and ocean) temperature reconstructions agree closely, yet whether SST datasets also agree is unclear. Here we show that trends in four widely used SST datasets show first-order differences, with 1982–2024 60° S to 60° N trends ranging from 0.108 to 0.184 °C per decade. These large discrepancies are perplexing given the agreement between global temperature datasets and the fact that 70% of the surface of the Earth is covered by ocean, but are legible upon recognizing that global temperature datasets use two SST fields whose trends agree more closely than those of the four SST datasets. Considering the trend uncertainty across SST datasets widens the range of plausible global temperature trends and impacts interpretations of recent record global temperatures, with implications for observational and model-based climate studies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":18974,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature Climate Change\",\"volume\":\"4 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":29.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature Climate Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02362-6\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02362-6","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

自20世纪80年代以来,基于近全球卫星的海表温度(SST)测量开始可用,据推测全球表面温度是众所周知的。四种常用的全球(陆地和海洋)温度重建的卫星时代变暖趋势非常一致,但海温数据集是否也一致尚不清楚。在这里,我们发现四个广泛使用的海温数据集的趋势呈现一阶差异,1982-2024年60°S至60°N的趋势范围为0.108至0.184°C / 10年。考虑到全球温度数据集与70%的地球表面被海洋覆盖这一事实之间的一致性,这些巨大的差异令人困惑,但在认识到全球温度数据集使用的两个海温场的趋势比四个海温数据集的趋势更接近时,这些差异是显而易见的。考虑海温数据集的趋势不确定性,扩大了合理的全球温度趋势范围,并影响了对最近全球温度记录的解释,对观测和基于模式的气候研究具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Consequential differences in satellite-era sea surface temperature trends across datasets

Consequential differences in satellite-era sea surface temperature trends across datasets

Global surface temperatures since the 1980s, when near-global satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements became available, are presumed to be well known. Satellite-era warming trends in four commonly used global (land and ocean) temperature reconstructions agree closely, yet whether SST datasets also agree is unclear. Here we show that trends in four widely used SST datasets show first-order differences, with 1982–2024 60° S to 60° N trends ranging from 0.108 to 0.184 °C per decade. These large discrepancies are perplexing given the agreement between global temperature datasets and the fact that 70% of the surface of the Earth is covered by ocean, but are legible upon recognizing that global temperature datasets use two SST fields whose trends agree more closely than those of the four SST datasets. Considering the trend uncertainty across SST datasets widens the range of plausible global temperature trends and impacts interpretations of recent record global temperatures, with implications for observational and model-based climate studies.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信