Beyond 2025: Projections of cardiothoracic surgeon demographics in France.

Background: Cardiothoracic surgeons are essential healthcare practitioners but there are demographic challenges and training complexities. Understanding workforce trends is critical to ensure future capacity and adaptability in France.

Aims: This study assessed the current state of the cardiothoracic surgery workforce in France and projected demographic trends through 2040.

Methods: Data from the French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery (2023) were used to analyse all active cardiothoracic surgeons and residents. The study included statistical analysis with an Opportunity Index to forecast surgeon inflow and outflow over 15years.

Results: The cardiothoracic workforce comprised 958 individuals, marking a 15% increase since 2012. Among senior surgeons, 52% practiced cardiac and 48% thoracic surgery. Public institutions employed 60%, while the private sector accounted for 40%. The median age of residents was 29years, with females representing 55% of the 2022 surgical training cohort. Regional disparities were noted, with Limoges and Caen presenting the best future opportunities. Growth in surgeon numbers is expected to continue steadily until 2040, but challenges in securing permanent positions for trainees, especially in cardiac surgery, may arise after 2035.

Conclusion: The outlook for cardiothoracic surgery in France is balanced, with significant demographic shifts such as increased female representation. To sustain growth and align with patient and practitioner needs, workforce adaptation and inclusivity should be prioritized.