A window of (missed) opportunity? A comprehensive stocktake and energy-system impact assessment of global COVID-19 recovery packages

COVID-19 reshaped global economic priorities at the time, with recovery packages offering unprecedented fiscal stimuli aimed at revitalising economies from the impacts of the pandemic and associated policy responses—including lockdowns. While these packages were quickly framed as an opportunity for aligning socioeconomic recovery spending with near- and longer-term climate goals, early assessments of their decarbonisation footprint were constrained by and/or oriented towards optimistic interpretations of the limited information available then. We examine the potential of recovery packages to bridge the medium- and long-term climate ambition gap towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals. To enable such a comprehensive assessment, we first develop an open-access database of global green recovery measures. Second, we explicitly translate these measures as inputs into three Integrated Assessment Models, to assess their implications for energy systems, emissions, and technology development globally. Third, we quantify the missed opportunity in global recovery spending in terms of accelerating the clean energy transition, by exploring a theoretical reallocation of funding from energy affordability measures towards green technologies. Our results suggest that, while the actual synthesis of global recovery funding may not be sufficient to boost climate efforts towards meeting the Paris climate goals with sustained effects post-2030, redirecting part of the funds to low-carbon technologies could accelerate decarbonisation and electrification trends in some sectors. Whether or not the global COVID-19 recovery portfolio is adjusted to better support transition goals, recovery funds alone cannot guarantee a comprehensive and effective transition; this requires complementary systemic reforms, targeted sectoral strategies, and international collaboration.