抵押贷款利率对房地产市场的影响

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102079

Martin Časta

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们分析了美国抵押贷款利率和住房活动之间的关系，重点是房价。采用脉冲响应函数（irf）和预测方差比（FVRs），我们通过测量抵押贷款利率与长期收益率的变化来解决潜在的内生性问题。我们的研究结果揭示了抵押贷款利率变化对房价的显著影响，最大隐含的长期半弹性接近10。FVRs为工具冲击提供了集识别方差分解，表明抵押贷款利率冲击解释了2%-25%的房价动态。结果还强调了实质性的不确定性，可能源于潜在的非线性和影响房价形成的区域因素，我们将进一步研究。此外，我们表明，抵押贷款利率的变化显著影响住房活动的各个维度，包括房屋销售、建筑和建筑许可。

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The impact of mortgage rates on the housing market

We analyze the relationship between mortgage rates and housing activity in the US, focusing on house prices. Employing impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast variance ratios (FVRs), we address potential endogeneity concerns by instrumenting mortgage rates with changes in long-term yields. Our findings reveal a significant impact of mortgage rate changes on house prices, with the maximal implied long-run semi-elasticity being close to 10. The FVRs provide set-identified variance decomposition for the instrumented shock, suggesting that mortgage rate shocks explain 2%–25% of house price dynamics. The results also highlight substantial uncertainty, likely stemming from potential nonlinearities and regional factors influencing house price formation, which we further investigate. Additionally, we show that changes in mortgage rates significantly affect various dimensions of housing activity, including houses sold, construction, and building permits.

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来源期刊

Journal of Housing Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Housing Economics provides a focal point for the publication of economic research related to housing and encourages papers that bring to bear careful analytical technique on important housing-related questions. The journal covers the broad spectrum of topics and approaches that constitute housing economics, including analysis of important public policy issues.