Economic Growth and Grassland Recovery: The Case of the Inverted EKC From China

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has been widely debated in pollution studies, and its applicability to grassland ecosystems remains fragmented, particularly regarding the mechanisms driving inflection point shifts. This study presents the Grassland Environmental Kuznets Curve (GEKC) framework, using high-resolution county-level panel data (2000–2022) from China's pastoral regions to model grassland degradation and recovery dynamics. With System GMM estimation for endogeneity, a robust U-shaped GEKC is found: economic growth first degrades grasslands but shifts to restoration beyond a threshold. Notably, the GEKC inflection point arrives earlier in economically developed regions and temperate continental climate zones, suggesting regional heterogeneity in grassland responses to economic development. Four key pathways influencing the GEKC inflection point shift are identified: the grassland scarcity pathway reducing resource competition through land use optimization and efficient livestock practices; the grassland governance pathway enhancing ecological stewardship via policy interventions; the land intensification pathway boosting productivity with technological advancements; and the livelihood transition pathway lessening anthropogenic pressures through income diversification. These findings challenge the conventional EKC paradigm by demonstrating that strategic policy sequencing—prioritizing governance in early developmental stages and market mechanisms post-inflection—can decouple economic growth from grassland degradation.