Political conflicts and food import refusals

We examine the impact of political conflicts on China's food import refusals using monthly data from 2010 to 2022. Our analysis reveals that political conflicts significantly contribute to increased food import rejections. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation rise in political tensions results in a .02% increase in the number of import shipment rejections. Heterogeneous analysis shows that this effect is more pronounced for developed countries than for developing ones and is stronger for differentiated products compared to homogeneous ones. Dynamic analysis indicates that the impact lasts for approximately 6 months. We also find that past rejections, the presence of non-tariff measures (NTMs), the duration of a country's WTO membership, and past export values, also significantly influence China's decisions to reject food imports. These findings highlight the importance of considering the risks of shipment rejections linked to political conflicts.