Emigration Intentions Driven by Institutions: Evidence From the South Caucasus

We analyse emigration intentions in response to institutional changes in the South Caucasus during the period 2010–2013, using nationally representative household-level data. Our findings indicate that political factors such as corruption, violation of human rights and political instability in the country are central in explaining permanent migration. The relevance of economic factors for permanent migration is also high. Geopolitical factors predominantly explain non-permanent migration intentions, suggesting that security concerns are less likely to be a reason for leaving the home country permanently. Regional patterns are consistently observed in Armenia and Azerbaijan but not in Georgia. This can be explained by sustained institutional differences between Georgia and the other two countries in the region. Our findings suggest that by prioritising political governance through initiatives like the Mobility Partnerships and the Eastern Partnership, the European Union (EU) can simultaneously promote institutional development and contribute to managing permanent migration from the South Caucasus. Although the EU is not the primary destination for migrants from the South Caucasus, the EU-led initiatives can still contribute to shaping structural conditions and institutional reforms that influence broader migration dynamics.