Hans Sloterdijk, Caroline Grünhagen, Rudi Voss, Patricia Grasse, David P. Keller, Linda Kleemann, Lotta Clara Kluger, Kira Lancker, Wilfried Rickels, Ulf Riebesell, Renato Salvatteci, Andreas Oschlies, Jörn O. Schmidt, Natascha Oppelt, Katrin Rehdanz, Marie-Catherine Riekhof
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This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High-emission (SSP5-8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3-7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for their alignment. Successfully integrating OAE with fisheries management will likely depend on technological advancements, international cooperation, and socio-economic developments. These scenarios are aligned with those used in model-based scenario studies conducted under the frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), providing a shared foundation for future work.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005478","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future Scenarios of Global Fisheries and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Under Socio-Economic and Climate Pathways\",\"authors\":\"Hans Sloterdijk, Caroline Grünhagen, Rudi Voss, Patricia Grasse, David P. 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This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High-emission (SSP5-8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3-7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for their alignment. 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Future Scenarios of Global Fisheries and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Under Socio-Economic and Climate Pathways
Achieving global climate goals while ensuring food security in a changing climate presents significant challenges, particularly when relying solely on land-based solutions. Covering over 70% of the Earth's surface, the ocean remains an underutilized resource for climate mitigation. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one such strategy, designed to strengthen the ocean's natural carbon sink, reduce atmospheric CO2, and mitigate ocean acidification. However, its implications for fisheries, critical for food security and livelihoods, remain uncertain. This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High-emission (SSP5-8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3-7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for their alignment. Successfully integrating OAE with fisheries management will likely depend on technological advancements, international cooperation, and socio-economic developments. These scenarios are aligned with those used in model-based scenario studies conducted under the frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), providing a shared foundation for future work.
期刊介绍：
Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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