Positive contributions of China's protected areas in biodiversity conservation and carbon storage under future climate change

Protected areas are crucial for sustaining species populations and minimizing habitat loss. However, climate change poses a global threat that introduces uncertainties to the effectiveness of existing protected areas and future conservation planning. Here, we analyzed the impact of climate change on protected area effectiveness in China by assessing species richness (mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds, and plants) and carbon storage under current and future (2050s) climate scenarios. By integrating both current and future potential key areas, forward-looking priority conservation areas were identified to address the gaps in existing protected areas and to enhance climate change adaptation. The results showed spatial heterogeneity in the climate-change velocity, with higher rates in protected areas in eastern, northern, and northeastern China. Under climate change, changes in species richness in existing protected areas differ among taxonomic groups; the largest number of protected areas showed decreasing bird and mammal species richness. However, the number of protected areas with increased species richness exceeded that with declined, and the number of effectively protected species increased by 1 % to 4 %. In addition, 52 % of protected areas showed an increase in carbon storage capacity; thus, protected areas can remain effective under future climate change. Despite these positive trends, 62 % to 92 % of species and 88 % of carbon storage were not effectively protected. Expanding priority areas could conserve >80 % of species and 30 % of carbon storage, both currently and in 2050. Our framework will help to assess the effectiveness of protected areas and to identify nearly optimal areas for future expansion.