越南北部微型鼻头虫的现状及气候驱动范围扩展预测。

IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q2 PARASITOLOGY
Duan Pham Ngoc , Thanh Dao Thi Ha , San Nguyen Ngoc , Minh Pham Ngoc , Ngoc Duong Nhu , Róbert Farkas , Sirinya Teeraananchai , Sándor Hornok
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引用次数: 0

摘要

微加鼻头虫是一种主要的牛外寄生虫,对热带和亚热带地区的动物健康和牲畜生产力产生重大影响。本研究调查了气候变化情景下越南北部微加沙的现状,并对其未来分布进行了预测。从2022年到2024年,在25个省份进行了实地调查,按省份、季节和宿主物种收集了蜱虫侵扰的数据。采用多变量logistic回归进行统计分析。为了预测未来的分布,在2050年和2070年的RCP-4.5和RCP-8.5气候情景下使用了MaxEnt模型。80.6%的调查点均有小孢子虫的存在,其中夏秋两季发病率较高。统计分析显示季节和寄主种类是蜱虫存在的重要预测因子。MaxEnt模型预测,在高排放情景(RCP-8.5)下,小黄鼠的适宜生境向高纬度和高海拔扩展。这是越南首次将基于现场的流行率数据与气候驱动的MaxEnt模型相结合的研究。这些发现强调了气候变化对蜱虫生态的潜在影响,并强调了制定适应性控制策略以减轻越南北部蜱媒疾病传播的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The current status and predicted climate-driven range expansion of Rhipicephalus microplus in northern Vietnam
Rhipicephalus microplus is a major ectoparasite of cattle, significantly impacting animal health and livestock productivity in tropical and subtropical regions. This study investigated the current status and predicted the future distribution of R. microplus in northern Vietnam under climate change scenarios. Field surveys were conducted across 25 provinces from 2022 to 2024, collecting data on tick infestation by province, season and host species. Statistical analyses were performed by multivariable logistic regression. To forecast future distribution, the MaxEnt model was employed under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070.
The presence of R. microplus was confirmed in 80.6 % of survey sites, with a higher prevalence observed during the summer and autumn seasons. Statistical analysis revealed that season and host species were significant predictors of tick presence. The MaxEnt model projected an expansion of suitable habitats for R. microplus toward higher latitudes and altitudes, especially under the high-emission scenario (RCP-8.5).
This is the first study to combine field-based prevalence data with climate-driven MaxEnt modeling for R. microplus in Vietnam. The findings highlight the potential impact of climate change on tick ecology and underscore the need for adaptive control strategies to mitigate the spread of tick-borne diseases in northern Vietnam.
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来源期刊
Acta tropica
Acta tropica 医学-寄生虫学
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
11.10%
发文量
383
审稿时长
37 days
期刊介绍: Acta Tropica, is an international journal on infectious diseases that covers public health sciences and biomedical research with particular emphasis on topics relevant to human and animal health in the tropics and the subtropics.
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