Assessing the impact of the Wolbachia-based control of malaria

Malaria remains a significant infectious disease globally, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Traditional control methods, such as disease surveillance and mosquito control, along with the development of malaria vaccines, have made strides in reducing the disease’s impact, but new control methods are urgently needed. Wolbachia is a natural bacterium that can infect mosquitoes and reduce their ability to transmit diseases. While initially used to control dengue fever, recent research explored its potential for malaria control. In this study, we develop and analyze a novel mathematical model to assess the potential use of Wolbachia-based strategies for malaria control. The model describes the complex Wolbachia transmission dynamics among mosquitoes and incorporates key features of malaria transmission in humans with dynamical immunity feedback. We derive the basic reproduction number of the malaria disease transmission, which depends on the prevalence of Wolbachia in mosquitoes. Our findings reveal bifurcations in both Wolbachia transmission among mosquitoes and malaria transmission in humans, suggesting the potential for malaria elimination through Wolbachia-based interventions. The sensitivity analysis identifies the important parameters for the basic reproduction number and for malaria reduction and elimination. We numerically explore the integration of Wolbachia and other malaria controls. When control focuses on reducing the malaria burden in humans, there is a substantial rebound in malaria prevalence following the intervention in humans, and our results suggest post-Wolbachia malaria control leads to the greatest reduction in total days of infection. When Wolbachia release is integrated with pre-release mosquito control, there is a comparably large reduction in total days of infection if pre-release mosquito control occurs only a few days before Wolbachia release.