Global and Regional Trends in Autism Burden from 1990 to 2021: A Data Re-Analysis and Prediction from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Objective: This study aims to investigate global incidence rates and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from 1990 to 2021 and forecast trends for the next 25 years.

Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we examined global and country-specific ASD incidence, prevalence, and burden. We also calculated age-standardized prevalence, analyzed by sex, age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and GBD regions, and made predictions for the future.

Results: In 2021, the GBD reported global age-standardized ASD incidence and prevalence at 0.019% and 0.788%, respectively. High-income Asia-Pacific had the highest burden, while Tropical Latin America had the lowest. From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized prevalence rose by 1.95%, and incidence by 5.20%. Females and low-middle SDI regions saw the most significant increases in incidence, while the Caribbean and Serbia saw decreases. High-income Asia Pacific and Japan experienced the largest prevalence increases, and Middle SDI, East Asia, high-income Asia Pacific, and Equatorial Guinea saw the most significant DALY increases, with Oceania showing the largest decrease. Predictive models forecast continued increases in incidence, prevalence, and DALYs from 2022 to 2046.

Conclusion: ASD incidence, prevalence, and DALYs are rising annually, with notable increases in females and middle-low income countries and a decline in the Caribbean. Tailored screening and interventions based on regional rates are essential for improving the health of individuals with autism.