基于沃瑟斯坦距离的气候误差度量

IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Carlos Veiga Rodrigues , Io Odderskov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍了一种新的理论框架,用于产生无滞后误差的误差度量,专门用于长期风能资源评估。所提出的度量标准通过关注稳态风流条件而不是瞬态事件,增强了气候统计数据的比较。一般来说,模型和观测值之间的误差是通过诸如均方根误差(RMSE)及其标准差(STDE)等指标来表征的。然而,如果风速预测的目的是表征气候和长期特征,那么这些预测受到时间滞后的影响,可能会扭曲对风速预测的评估。在估计气候误差时,没有标准的度量标准可以完全消除时差影响。该方法将RMSE和STDE分解为统计矩,并将其与概率分布的分位数函数联系起来。这些矩等于用于提取与时间无关的误差度量的沃瑟斯坦距离。这个程序既适用于分析分布,如威布尔分布,也适用于基于样本统计的经验分布。数值实验验证了提出的气候指标的有效性,证明了具有相似统计分布的时间序列的RMSE接近于零的能力,而传统的RMSE由于相位误差超过20% %。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate error metrics based on Wasserstein distances
A novel theoretical framework is introduced for generating error metrics free from time-lag errors, specifically designed for long-term wind resource assessment. The proposed metrics enable an enhanced comparison of climate statistics by focusing on the steady-state wind flow conditions rather than transient events. Generally, error between models and observations is characterized through metrics such as the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and its Standard Deviation (STDE). However, these are influenced by time-lags that can distort the evaluation of wind speed predictions if the aim is the characterization of climate and long-term characteristics. No standardized metrics exist that fully eliminate time-lag influences when estimating climate error. The proposed methodology decomposes RMSE and STDE into statistical moments and relates these to the quantile functions of probability distributions. The moments are equated to Wasserstein distances which are used to extract time-independent error metrics. This procedure is applicable to both analytical distributions, such as the Weibull distribution, and empirical distributions from sample-based statistics. Numerical experiments were conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed climate metrics, demonstrating the ability to achieve near-zero RMSE for time series with similar statistical distributions, whereas conventional RMSE exceeded 20 % due to phase error.
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来源期刊
Applied Energy
Applied Energy 工程技术-工程:化工
CiteScore
21.20
自引率
10.70%
发文量
1830
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.
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