利用CMIP6模式探讨人为强迫对东非气象干旱格局的影响

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106569

Tamirat Yohannes , Jinhua Yu , Mulualem Abera , Philemon King’uza , Jonah Kazora , Xuyu Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究评估了CMIP6 12个全球气候模式（GCMs）在1981 - 2014年东非地区降水和干旱模拟中的表现。我们采用不同的统计和干旱指数方法来识别系统偏差，并选择最佳的模型排序以减少不确定性。利用气候灾害组红外降水观测站（CHIRPS）和气候研究单位（CRU）的观测资料进行评价。基于MAM平均季节模式和CHIRPS观测数据，通过统计指标进行评估，结果表明：ccc - cm2 - hr4、CanESM5、GFDL-ESM4和TaiESM1预形成模式在历史时段内比EA降水更能捕获降水，偏差在12% ~ 39%之间。这项研究强调了理解人类引起的气候变化对MAM干旱影响的重要性。该研究使用了两个干旱指数，其目的是探测干旱模式的变化，并将这些变化归因于人为气候强迫。历史模拟，包括所有类型的强迫，成功地复制了观测到的空间趋势。标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）除坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚南部和东南部外，大部分地区呈干燥趋势。在包括所有强迫类型的模拟中，干旱趋势更为明显，突出了人为气候变化对东亚地区干旱模式的显著影响。这一结果强烈表明，人为气候变化对东亚地区MAM季节性干旱的加剧有显著贡献。将其投影到观测值上，并根据无外部强迫的控制模拟的背景噪声进行评估。ALL的趋势模式信号是观察到的SPEI，显示出一个更强的信号。但是，在SPEI中无法检测到NAT信号。研究结果表明，人类活动导致的降水变化在南部和东南部占主导地位，而人类活动导致的温度变化在东非北部更为明显。

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Exploring the influence of anthropogenic forcing on meteorological drought pattern in East Africa: An analysis using CMIP6 models

This study evaluated the performance of twelve Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in simulation of precipitation and drought over East Africa (EA) from 1981 to 2014. We employed different statistical and drought indices methods to identify systematic bias and to select the best ranking of models to reduce uncertainties. The evaluation was preformed against with Observed data from Climate Hazard Group InfraRed precipitation with stations (CHIRPS) and Climate Research Unit (CRU). Based on the mean MAM seasonal models and observed CHIRPS data, evaluated through statistical metrics, the results show that the top preforming models: CMCC-CM2-HR4, CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, and TaiESM1 better captured precipitation over EA precipitation, with bias ranging from 12 to 39 % during the historical period. The study highlights the importance of understanding the influences of human-induced climate change on MAM droughts. The study uses two drought indices, its aims to detect changes in drought patterns and attribute these changes to anthropogenic climate forcing. Historical simulations, including all types of forcing, successfully replicate observed spatial trends. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows a drying trend in most parts, except the south and southeast of Tanzania and Kenya. The drying trend is more pronounced in the simulations that include all types of forcing, highlighting the significant impact of human-induced climate change on drought patterns in EA. This outcome strongly suggests that human-induced climate change significantly contributes to the intensification of MAM seasonal drought in EA. More comprehensive detection work is carried out using the signal's fingerprint of both ALL and NAT, which are projected onto the observation and evaluated against the background noise from control simulations without external forcing. The trend pattern signal of ALL is observed SPEI and shows a stronger signal. However, the NAT signal is not detected in SPEI. The findings reveal that changes in precipitation due to human activity are predominant in the south and southeast, while changes in temperature due to human activity are more evident in northern East Africa.

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.