Three theories, one behavior: A comparative assessment of youth gun carrying through rational choice, strain, and social disorganization frameworks

This study investigates the factors that drive gun carrying among high-risk male youth by comparing three criminological frameworks: rational choice theory, strain theory, and social disorganization theory. Drawing on longitudinal data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, we examine how constructs drawn from Rational Choice Theory, Strain Theory, and Social Disorganization Theory relate to youth gun carrying. We use these frameworks as guides to assess the motivational correlates of firearm possession in a high-risk adolescent sample. Findings reveal that prior gun carrying is a strong predictor of future behavior, while self-reported offending, perceived structural disadvantage, and neighborhood incivilities significantly shape firearm possession. Although individual perceptions of risk and reward offer partial explanatory power, community-level disorder and chronic strain emerge as more robust predictors. These results underscore the need for multilevel interventions that address both individual behavior and the broader structural and social conditions that sustain youth gun carrying.