Reducing chemical fertilisers under the European Union's farm to Fork strategy: implications for Italian processing tomatoes

In line with the European Union's goal of climate neutrality by 2050, the Farm to Fork Strategy aims to support the transition towards a more sustainable food system. One of its key targets is a 20 % reduction in the use of chemical fertilisers in agriculture by 2030. This work investigates the economic impact of such a reduction on processing tomato farms in Italy, employing a Stochastic Frontier Analysis and an Inefficiency Effects Model on a sample of 2147 observations and 843 farms over the period 2010–2021. The findings highlight the reliance of Italian processing tomato farms on chemical fertilisers, as a 20 % reduction may result in a 9.6 % loss in processing tomato output. Larger, more intensive, and more efficient farms are the most affected. Exogenous factors such as the degree of specialisation, location, altitude, CAP subsidies, and farm characteristics emerge as determinants of Technical Efficiency, helping identify contexts in which efficiency improvements can help mitigate fertiliser overuse and offering valuable insights for targeted support. In conclusion, caution is needed in reducing chemical fertilisers in the short term: while essential for preserving the environment and natural resources, it may involve economic losses, especially where inputs are already used efficiently. In this context, an effective transition requires a combined effort in innovation, agronomic practices, and targeted policy support that considers the heterogeneity of farms, sectors, and regions.