Does the welfare of herding households be affected by grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors?: Evidence from Ili prefecture in Xinjiang, China

The “people-grass-livestock” balance is crucial for the sustainable and eco-friendly development of pastoral areas. Herding households, as key players in maintaining this balance, must be supported to ensure their well-being is not compromised while managing grassland and livestock. Protecting their welfare is essential for achieving long-term sustainability in these regions. Based on micro-survey data from 402 herding households in the grassland pastoral areas of Ili Prefecture, Xinjiang, this paper employs the Endogenous Switching Regression Model and the Mediation Effect Model to empirically test the impact of grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors adopted by herding households on family welfare levels. The study reveals the following findings: Grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors encompass livestock reduction behavior and alternative grazing behavior (such as pen breeding). Across the full sample, alternative grazing behavior significantly enhance the welfare of herding households, whereas livestock reduction behavior exerts a negative impact on family welfare levels. This conclusion is further corroborated through alternative models and the substitution of independent variable. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that for herding households with higher education levels, livestock reduction behavior can significantly boost family welfare levels, which contrasts with the results obtained from the full sample. In contrast, for herding households with lower education and wealth levels, alternative grazing behavior yield a more pronounced welfare-enhancing effect. Mechanism inspection reveals that scaled breeding is a crucial channel through which herding households can enhance their family welfare levels by adopting alternative grazing behavior. Non-livestock employment serves as a vital pathway for herding households to offset the welfare losses incurred from livestock reduction behavior. Therefore, by strengthening technical support for alternative grazing behavior and improving the non-livestock employment market, it is possible to safeguard the welfare of herding households. This, in turn, can encourage them to proactively adopt grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors, thereby achieving effective governance of grassland ecology.