Does alignment alone predict mechanical complications after adult spinal deformity surgery? A machine learning comparison of alignment, bone quality, and soft tissue.

Objective: Mechanical complications are a vexing occurrence after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. While achieving ideal spinal alignment in ASD surgery is critical, alignment alone may not fully explain all mechanical complications. The authors sought to determine which combination of inputs produced the most sensitive and specific machine learning model to predict mechanical complications using postoperative alignment, bone quality, and soft tissue data.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in patients undergoing ASD surgery from 2009 to 2021. Inclusion criteria were a fusion ≥ 5 levels, sagittal/coronal deformity, and at least 2 years of follow-up. The primary exposure variables were 1) alignment, evaluated in both the sagittal and coronal planes using the L1-pelvic angle ± 3°, L4-S1 lordosis, sagittal vertical axis, pelvic tilt, and coronal vertical axis; 2) bone quality, evaluated by the T-score from a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scan; and 3) soft tissue, evaluated by the paraspinal muscle-to-vertebral body ratio and fatty infiltration. The primary outcome was mechanical complications. Alongside demographic data in each model, 7 machine learning models with all combinations of domains (alignment, bone quality, and soft tissue) were trained. The positive predictive value (PPV) was calculated for each model.

Results: Of 231 patients (24% male) undergoing ASD surgery with a mean age of 64 ± 17 years, 147 (64%) developed at least one mechanical complication. The model with alignment alone performed poorly, with a PPV of 0.85. However, the model with alignment, bone quality, and soft tissue achieved a high PPV of 0.90, sensitivity of 0.67, and specificity of 0.84. Moreover, the model with alignment alone failed to predict 15 complications of 100, whereas the model with all three domains only failed to predict 10 of 100.

Conclusions: These results support the notion that not every mechanical failure is explained by alignment alone. The authors found that a combination of alignment, bone quality, and soft tissue provided the most accurate prediction of mechanical complications after ASD surgery. While achieving optimal alignment is essential, additional data including bone and soft tissue are necessary to minimize mechanical complications.