降雨和干旱的季节变化对博茨瓦纳东部中部地区植被和牲畜种群的影响

IF 2.3
Lydia. O. Frank, P. Parth Sarthi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在阐明降雨变化的组成、对自然植被生长季节的影响以及对牲畜种群的影响。方法本研究评估了降雨指标和干旱对博茨瓦纳中部地区植被和牲畜的影响。它使用Pearson相关分析来评估降雨指标、干旱、植被和牲畜之间的关系。趋势分析采用Mann-Kendal和Sen的斜率分析。结果中央区降雨多变性和干旱频发,对植被和牲畜的影响持续存在。从1990年到2020年,该地区经历了大约交替年的中度干旱。2003年发生了严重干旱,2000年是多雨的一年。降雨指标未见明显趋势。归一化植被指数(NDVI)、牛羊数量显著下降。年NDVI与多雨日数、干旱日数和连续多雨日数呈显著相关;牛数与连续干旱日数呈负相关。季节分析结果表明,NDVI与4 ~ 6月和10 ~ 12月的降水日数密切相关,与7 ~ 9月的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)密切相关。研究结果揭示了博茨瓦纳中央区降雨指标、SPEI 12、牲畜(山羊、绵羊和牛种群)和NDVI之间的季节和年度关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The impact of seasonal variability of rainfall and drought on vegetation and livestock population in Central District, eastern Botswana

The impact of seasonal variability of rainfall and drought on vegetation and livestock population in Central District, eastern Botswana

Background

This research aimed to elucidate the components of rainfall variation, their influence on the natural vegetation growing season and consequent impacts on the livestock population.

Methods

This study evaluates the influence of rainfall metrics and drought on vegetation and livestock in Central District, Botswana. It uses Pearson correlation analysis to assess the relationships between rainfall metrics, drought, vegetation and livestock. Trends were analysed using Mann–Kendal and Sen's slope analysis.

Results

It was found that rainfall variability and drought frequently occur in Central District, with continuing effects on vegetation and livestock. From 1990 to 2020, the district experienced moderate droughts on cycles of approximately alternating years. Severe drought occurred in 2003, and 2000 was a wet year. No significant trend was observed in rainfall metrics. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the number of cattle and goats significantly declined. Annual NDVI shows a significant relationship with the number of rainy days, drought and consecutive wet days; cattle numbers are negatively correlated with consecutive dry days. Seasonal results show that NDVI is highly correlated to the number of rainy days in April–June (AMJ) and October–December, and NDVI is correlated to the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) during AMJ and July–September.

Conclusions

The study findings revealed a seasonal and annual relationship between rainfall metrics, SPEI 12, livestock (goats, sheep and cattle population) and NDVI in the Central District of Botswana.

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