Predictive model and prognostic insights into duodenal stump fistula following radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y reconstruction for gastric cancer.

Background: Duodenal stump fistula (DSF) is a rare yet serious complication following gastric cancer surgery. The risk factors associated with DSF, as well as the predictive models, remain insufficiently elucidated.

Aim: To identify DSF risk factors following radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y anastomosis, develop a predictive model, and evaluate impact on prognosis.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients undergoing radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y anastomosis for gastric cancer at Juntendo University from 2015 to 2021 (n = 325). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with DSF. Based on the independent risk factors, a predictive nomogram was developed and subsequently evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were utilized to assess the impact of DSF on overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS).

Results: Among the 325 patients analyzed, DSF was observed in 7 (2.2%) cases. No DSF was observed in 110 patients where the duodenal stump suturing fixation technique to the jejunal wall was used. Multivariate analysis confirmed that age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17, P = 0.015] and obstructive ventilatory failure (OVF) (OR = 14.03, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for DSF. The predictive nomogram was constructed based on age and OVF, which exhibited strong performance (area under the curve = 0.90, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.99). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in CSS for patients with DSF, whereas no significant differences were observed in OS or DFS.

Conclusion: Age and OVF are independent risk factors for DSF, which worsens CSS. A nomogram predicts DSF accurately, and innovative surgical techniques may reduce its occurrence.