Cost-effectiveness analysis of artificial intelligence (AI) in earlier detection of liver lesions in cirrhotic patients at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Cirrhosis is a major contributing factor, accounting for over 90% of HCC cases. With the high mortality rate of HCC, earlier detection of HCC is critical. When added to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), artificial intelligence (AI) has been shown to improve HCC detection. Nonetheless, to date no cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted on an AI tool to enhance earlier HCC detection. This study reports on the cost-effectiveness of detection of liver lesions with AI improved MRI in the surveillance for HCC in patients with a cirrhotic liver compared to usual care (UC).

Methods: The model structure included a decision tree followed by a state-transition Markov model from an Italian healthcare perspective. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were simulated in cirrhotic patients at risk of HCC. One-way sensitivity analyses and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

Results: For patients receiving UC, the average lifetime costs per 1,000 patients were €16,604,800 compared to €16,610,250 for patients receiving the AI approach. With a QALY gained of 0.55 and incremental costs of €5,000 for every 1,000 patients, the ICER was €9,888 per QALY gained, indicating cost-effectiveness with the willingness-to-pay threshold of €33,000/QALY gained. Main drivers of cost-effectiveness included the cost and performance (sensitivity and specificity) of the AI tool.

Discussion: This study suggests that an AI-based approach to detect HCC earlier in cirrhotic patients can be cost-effective. By incorporating cost-effective AI-based approaches in clinical practice, patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency are improved.