1990-2021年60岁及以上成年人全球结核病负担：2021年全球疾病负担研究结果

IF 4.8 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107966

Junping Liu , Yue Zhou , Juan Guan , Yaping Liu , Weijian Song , Wei Liu , Xinle Yin , Yuqin Liu , Ting Li , Long Jin , Lihan Zhang , Yunkai Li , Lin Wu , Nan Wang , Zhaoyue Liu , Xinru Liu , Yanfu Wang , Qunhong Wu , Libo Liang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标：结核病对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁，特别是在老年人中。本研究旨在全面分析1990年至2021年60岁及以上成年人中与hiv阴性结核病相关的全球疾病负担的模式和时间趋势。方法：从2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）中获得结核病、药敏结核病（DS-TB）、耐多药结核病（MDR-TB）和广泛耐药结核病（XDR-TB）的发病率、死亡和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据。进行了前沿分析，以查明需要加强的领域和按发展水平分层的国家之间的差距。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（BAPC）预测到2035年的疾病负担趋势。结果：在全球老年人群中，结核病和DS-TB的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和DALY率呈下降趋势，而耐多药结核病和广泛耐药结核病呈上升趋势。前沿分析显示，不同国家和地区之间存在减轻负担的潜力，韩国等SDI高的国家的疾病负担高于其社会人口发展的预期。BAPC模型显示，到2035年，老年人耐多药结核病和广泛耐药结核病负担将继续上升。结论：老年人耐多药结核病和广泛耐药结核病负担的增加强调了有必要采取有针对性的干预措施来对抗结核病负担，例如在60岁及以上的成年人中实施主动病例发现（ACF）。

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Global burden of tuberculosis among adults aged 60 years and older, 1990-2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

Objectives

Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly, among elderly individuals. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the patterns and temporal trends in the global disease burden of HIV-negative TB among adults aged ≥60 years from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

Data on incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years of TB, drug-susceptible TB, multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. Frontier analysis was carried out to pinpoint areas for enhancement and disparities among nations stratified by development level. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to forecast disease burden trends through 2035.

Results

A decreasing trend in age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life-years rates for TB and drug-susceptible TB was observed among the elderly population worldwide, whereas an upward trend was noted for MDR-TB and XDR-TB. Frontier analyses revealed a potential for burden alleviation among diverse nations and regions, with high socio-demographic index nations, such as the Republic of Korea, showing higher disease burden than expected for their sociodemographic development. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model revealed that by 2035, the MDR-TB and XDR-TB burden will continue increasing in the elderly population.

Conclusions

The increasing MDR-TB and XDR-TB burden in older individuals underscores the need for tailored interventions to combat TB burden, such as implementing active case finding among adults aged 60 years and older.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

1020

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID) Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases Publication Frequency: Monthly Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access Scope: Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research. Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports. Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases. Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.