Links between poverty, climate-induced migration and deforestation in western Madagascar

Recently, people from arid regions in Madagascar have migrated to greener and wetter areas, creating socioeconomic and environmental challenges from increased demand for natural resources. This paper examines the relationship between human migration and land use change in five communes in and around the Menabe Antimena protected area, a critical biodiversity hotspot in western Madagascar. We analysed poverty and climate differences between migrants' origins and destinations by conducting 92 semi-structured interviews, 46 with migrants in Menabe and 46 with residents of Androy, a region contributing to migration flow. We also investigated population dynamics and ecological indicators, including forest cover and number of VIIRS active fires detected weighted with precipitations between 2017 and 2022. Results show that migrants moved to areas with more rainfall and less poverty, with 89.1 % leaving their home villages due to famine and poor lifestyle. The number of migrants entering the protected area has increased 3.2 times with 63.0 % of them directly involved in illegal agricultural practices. The forest cover in areas of communes inside the protected area declined by 22.1 % though 36.4 % outside, while weighted active fires rose by 24.7 % inside and 55.9 % outside, with higher fire occurrences in communes with larger forest. Among migrants, 45.7 % plan to return home once they have saved sufficient funds, 28.3 % intend to settle permanently, and 13.0 % aim to relocate to more productive areas after clearing local forest. These findings can guide authorities and conservation managers in making policies to support migrants in adopting sustainable farming practices, addressing links to deforestation.