Assessing potential implications of the EU's carbon dioxide removal strategy on Brazil's land ecosystems and local communities

The European Union (EU)'s commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 relies significantly on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) strategies, yet implications of such approaches for the Global South remain unclear. Here we reflect on how land-based CDR ambitions in the EU—particularly BECCS—may generate disproportionate pressures on ecosystems and communities in countries like Brazil, which have become a focal point for climate mitigation due to their biophysical potential and geopolitical ties. Although Brazil is not formally committed to providing land-based offsets to the EU, its significant potential to host large-scale afforestation and BECCS projects renders it a useful case study for exploring these dynamics. Under a stylised exploratory scenario in which Brazil accommodates the full external land demand for BECCS, we estimate that up to 10.2 million hectares (Mha) would be needed by 2030, and between 100.3 and 152.5 Mha by 2050. This level of land use could lead to substantial socioenvironmental risks, including deforestation, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and the displacement of local and indigenous communities. Drawing on past experiences with extractive green initiatives, we identify risks associated with predatory green projects—such as land use conflicts, food insecurity, and the erosion of Indigenous rights and knowledge—which raise concerns aligned with notions of green neo-colonialism. Furthermore, this increased demand for land could jeopardise Brazil’s capacity to achieve its net-zero GHG pledge by 2050, which relies heavily on nature-based solutions, such as ending deforestation and promoting large-scale native vegetation restoration. We recommend a set of integrated and participatory policy approaches that prioritise procedural justice, ensure transparent international cooperation, and mitigate the unintended impacts of global CDR strategies on vulnerable ecosystems and communities. This work advances the conceptual understanding of the multi-layer environmental and social implications of the EU’s CDR strategy, highlighting its transboundary effects and potential tensions between Global North priorities and Global South equity considerations.