重新审视了不一致的调查直方图和点预测

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107097

Michael P. Clements

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引用次数: 0

摘要

过去对专业预测者的直方图和点预测的调查分析表明，两者并不总是一致的。点预测是系统性地高于或低于相应的直方图均值，这取决于我们是考虑通胀还是GDP增长。我们考虑不一致性是否与直方图预测的延迟更新有关，还是与两种类型的预测对新信息的反应有关，以及不一致的对是否通常意味着不准确的点或直方图预测。我们还重新考虑了与扩展数据集上的任务复杂性相关的解释。

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Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited

Past analyses of surveys of professional forecasters’ histogram and point forecasts indicate that the two are not always consistent. The point forecasts are either systematically higher or lower than the corresponding histogram means, depending on whether we consider inflation or GDP growth. We consider whether inconsistencies are related to delayed updating of the histogram forecasts, or to the reaction of the two types of forecasts to new information, and whether inconsistent pairs typically imply less accurate point or histogram forecasts. We also re-consider explanations related to the complexity of the task on an extended dataset.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.