Is the single-buyer model a barrier to clean energy deployment? Empirical evidence on decarbonization and renewable energy supply in emerging and developing countries

This paper compares the renewable energy share in electricity generation and carbon emission intensity of different electricity market models in 63 emerging and developing countries. Using propensity score matching and panel data analysis, we examine how the share of renewable energy and carbon emission intensity have changed between 2010 and 2022. Despite early criticisms labeling the single-buyer model as a “dangerous path” for developing countries, our results show that the competitive electricity market model has not outperformed the single-buyer model in increasing renewable energy share in generation and reducing carbon emission intensity in these countries—both key metrics that indicate the success of a country’s energy transition. Additionally, our results suggest that the variability in renewable energy share and carbon intensity across market types in emerging and developing countries is more dependent on country context. These findings emphasize the need for tailored market designs and regulatory reforms to balance efficiency, equity, and sustainability in transitioning power systems.