Coastal vulnerability and driving factors in Shanwei Chengqu District (SWCD), Southern China

Over the past few decades, the rapid development and transformation of coastal zones have significantly intensified coastal vulnerability, presenting increasing challenges in the context of regional climate change, environmental degradation, and global sea level rise. Consequently, it has become increasingly critical to identify the specific drivers of coastal vulnerability and to quantify vulnerability levels by taking into account both socio-economic conditions and natural environmental factors. In this study, the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were applied to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the Shanwei Chengqu District (SWCD), focusing on both physical and human-related influences. The results revealed a varied distribution of vulnerability along the 151.8 km mainland coastline of SWCD, with 50 percent classified as highly vulnerable, 25 percent as moderately vulnerable, and the remaining 25 percent as low vulnerability. The key contributing factors included coastal slope, geomorphology, sea level change, wave height, and the presence of road infrastructure. The study highlights that in areas with limited human activity, coastal vulnerability is primarily shaped by natural environmental conditions. Moreover, significant spatial variation in vulnerability was observed, largely determined by differences in geomorphological settings and hydrodynamic conditions. Notably, regions both near and far from SWCD show similar patterns in the underlying drivers of vulnerability, indicating the potential existence of common mechanisms across different spatial contexts. However, spatial heterogeneity remains evident due to site-specific influences such as coastal morphology and the varying intensity of human activities.