Carbon footprints and decarbonization potential in the global renewable power sector

The renewable energy power sector is widely recognized as a key driver of decarbonization, while few studies have systematically examined its embodied carbon emissions and decarbonization potential within the context of global industrial chain. This study addressed this critical gap by integrating the multi-regional input-output model, structural path analysis, multiplier-accelerator model, and row arrangement series method to investigate the embodied carbon emissions characteristics and decarbonization potential of this sector within the global industrial chain. The research findings reveal that: (i) the embodied carbon emissions at the consumption end of renewable energy increased significantly by 46.40 % from 2016 to 2022. (ii) China and the United States hold pivotal roles in the industrial chain. The typical embodied carbon emissions transmission path flows from local renewable generation to heavy industry sectors, then to end-users either directly or via intermediaries. (iii) Environmentally-friendly residential power supply and power structure optimization scenarios have substantial emission reduction effects, achieving maximum emission reductions of 1202.99 Mt. and 1156.04 Mt. (iv) The power supply structure significantly influences the carbon reduction effects of land transportation transformation. When the proportion of renewable energy is <50 %, emissions increase; however, when the renewable energy ratio reaches two-thirds, emissions can be obviously reduced by 17,157.36 kt. (v) The initial investments in renewable energy may lead to a marginal 0.30 % increase in embodied carbon emissions. These findings support the formulation of tailored policies for the low-carbon development of renewable energy across the global industrial chain, thereby providing crucial guidance for the global transition to a green energy system.