Correction to “Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings”

Bahar, D. (2025). Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 44, 674–680. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22665

Due to a coding error in the statistical software, some variables measuring year-over-year differences were incorrectly computed. After correcting the code and re-estimating all results—both in the main manuscript and the supplementary materials—the overall findings and conclusions of the study remain unchanged. The figures and tables affected by the correction are reproduced below. The author apologizes for this error and any confusion it may have caused.

Corrections to the Manuscript

Correction to Figure 1(c): The corrected version of the figure reflecting the updated year-over-year calculations, is reproduced below.

Figure 1(c): Southwest Border Encounters and Labor Market Tightness, y-o-y

Correction of values in text, page 677:

The following text contained incorrect elasticity values:

When using year-over-year differences, estimating an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model, the elasticity is about 0.35. This elasticity is smaller in magnitudes, but it is based on changes and not on levels. As such, it implies that a 10 percent increase in labor market tightness levels from a year ago is associated with an increase in border crossings of 3.5 percent relative to a year before.

It should be replaced with:

When using year-over-year differences, estimating an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model, the elasticity is about 0.46. This elasticity is smaller in magnitudes, but it is based on changes and not on levels. As such, it implies that a 10 percent increase in labor market tightness levels from a year ago is associated with an increase in border crossings of 4.6 percent relative to a year before.

Correction to Figure 3(b): The corrected version of the figure reflecting the updated year-over-year calculations, is reproduced below.

Figure 3(b): Estimated Elasticity per Presidential Term, y-o-y

Correction to Table B1: The second column has been updated to reflect corrected year-over-year elasticity estimates following the resolution of a coding error. The full corrected table is reproduced below.

Table B1: Elasticity of crossings to labor market tightness

Correction of values in text, page OA-3:

Correction to Table B2: Columns 3 and 4 have been updated to reflect corrected year-over-year elasticity estimates following the resolution of a coding error. The full corrected table is reproduced below.

Table B2: Elasticity of crossings to labor market tightness, by presidential term.

Correction to Figure C1(b):

The corrected version of the figure reflecting the updated year-over-year calculations, is reproduced below.

Figure C1(b): Southwest border encounters and labor market tightness (2018-2024), y-o-y

Correction to Table E1: All columns in Panel B have been updated to reflect corrected year-over-year elasticity estimates following the resolution of a coding error. The full corrected table is reproduced below.

Table E1: Elasticity of crossings to labor market tightness, by crossing point.

In addition to the year-over-year results, several quarterly data estimates were affected by the same coding error and have been revised. The corrected tables and figures are reproduced below.

Correction to Figure F1(c): The corrected version of the figure reflecting the year-over-year calculations, is reproduced below.

Figure F1(c): Southwest Border Encounters and Labor Market Tightness, quarterly data, y-o-y

Correction to Table F1: Column 2 has been updated to reflect corrected year-over-year elasticity estimates following the resolution of a coding error. The full corrected table is reproduced below.

Table F1: Elasticity of crossings to labor market tightness (quarterly data).

Correction to Table F2: Columns 3 and 4 have been updated to reflect corrected year-over-year elasticity estimates following the resolution of a coding error. The full corrected table is reproduced below.

Table F2: Elasticity of crossings to labor market tightness, by Presidential Term (quarterly data).

The author regrets this minor coding error and appreciates the opportunity to correct the record. As noted, despite the changes outlined above, the overall findings and conclusions of the study remain unchanged.