Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: An Offensive Realist Reconsideration of Philippine Grand Strategy

In regions riddled with heightened security tensions from great power competition like Southeast Asia, why do states like the Philippines defy conventional rationality and hedge against their treaty ally? This paper seeks to answer this gap in the literature by arguing for a new definition of hedging that covers contemporary cases. Moreover, this paper proposes the theory of Offensive Hedging, a legitimate form of middle power grand strategy that weaponizes limited alignment to accrue relative gains from great power competition. These arguments shall be supported analyzing Sino–Philippine partnerships through quarterly reports, declassified documents, and official diplomatic rhetoric and compare this alongside Sino-Philippine tensions in the South China Sea (2016–2024). Finally, this paper shall briefly argue for the generalizability of Offensive Hedging by analyzing Vietnam's grand strategy, setting the foundation for future research using this lens.