Assesment of the strategic transition from gas to electric heat pumps and policy implications for power reserve margins in South Korea

This study evaluates the impact of transitioning from gas heat pumps (GHPs) to electric heat pumps (EHPs) on South Korea's power reserve margin. Additionally, it examines trends in electricity supply and demand, assessing changes in reserve capacity and the effects of expanding renewable energy capacity on supply stability and reserve margins. The analysis focuses on energy consumption, operational costs, and carbon emissions of both systems to determine the feasibility and sustainability of transitioning from GHP to EHP. Simulation models applied to public and general facilities assess electricity demand changes, with an emphasis on peak power demand scenarios. Simulation results indicate that while transitioning the total installed capacity of GHPs in South Korea to EHPs increases electricity consumption by approximately 398.8 MW, the impact on the power grid remains minimal due to South Korea’s increasing renewable energy share. The study further reveals that switching to EHPs could reduce annual operational costs by 20.89 million USD, though it may lead to higher CO₂ emissions. Policy recommendations for promoting EHP adoption and strategies for managing power reserve margins are also discussed.