评估不完整的雨水网数据对模拟结果不确定性的影响

IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Xiaotian Qi , Soon-Thiam Khu , Pei Yu , Yang Liu , Tian-yi Cai , Mingna Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

雨水网数据的不足或错误会导致模型模拟结果的显著不确定性,这可能对决策过程产生不利影响。因此,开发有效的方法来评估和减轻这些不确定性是至关重要的。本研究评估了降雨特征和空间连通性对系统水平和局部井口水平缺失参数影响的影响。结果表明:1)在系统层面上,坡度缺失的影响相对较小,仅占直径缺失影响的11% ~ 13%;2)降雨强度的增加与模拟结果的相对误差减小相关,而降雨峰值的延迟则减轻了参数缺失的影响。3)随着缺失参数管道空间连通性的增加,误差幅度也随之增大;其中,在1年回归周期的降雨事件中,2、3、5、10管道的最大误差分别为66、79.8、130.8、297 m3。4)缺失坡度对人孔内涝的影响大于缺失管径。为了使人孔的相对误差控制在20%以内,漏坡率应控制在10%以下,漏径率应控制在30%以下。这些发现增强了我们对缺失参数对SWMM模拟影响的理解,并为参数简化、校准和优化过程提供了必要的指导。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessing the impact of incomplete stormwater network data on uncertainty in simulation results

Assessing the impact of incomplete stormwater network data on uncertainty in simulation results
Insufficient or erroneous stormwater network data can lead to significant uncertainties in model simulation results, which may adversely affect decision-making processes. Therefore, it is crucial to develop effective methodologies for evaluating and mitigating these uncertainties. This study assesses the impact of rainfall characteristics and spatial connectivity on the effects of missing parameters at both the system level and the local manhole level. The results indicate that: 1) At the system level, the absence of slope has a relatively minor impact, accounting for only 11 % to 13 % of the effects caused by the absence of diameter. 2) An increase in rainfall intensity correlates with a reduction in the relative error of simulation results, while a delayed rainfall peak mitigates the impact of parameter missingness. 3) As the spatial connectivity of pipes with missing parameters increases, the magnitude of the error also rises; specifically, in a rainfall event with a 1-year return period, the maximum errors for 2, 3, 5, and 10 connected pipes are 66, 79.8, 130.8, and 297 m3, respectively. 4) The impact of missing slope on manhole waterlogging is greater than that of missing pipe diameter. To keep the relative error of the manholes within 20 %, the percentage of missing slope should be kept below 10 %, while the percentage of missing diameter should be limited to below 30 %. These findings enhance our understanding of the influence of missing parameters on SWMM simulations and provide essential guidance for the processes of parameter simplification, calibration, and optimization.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology
Journal of Hydrology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
1309
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology and hydrogeology. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, hydraulics, agrohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, civil and environmental engineering are included. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, environmental sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site.
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