Ana Catarina de Paula Leite , Liliana Marques Pimentel , Leandro de Almeida Monteiro
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Biofuel adoption in the transport sector: The impact of renewable energy policies
This study quantifies the impact of the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) on the adoption of biofuels in Portugal’s transportation sector. To this end, the study analyzes the interaction between regulatory instruments and market dynamics using a vector error correction model with two complementary econometric specifications. The first specification captures the administrative dimension of the certificate market by assessing how the issuance of advanced biofuel certificates (TdB) respond to agricultural and energy market prices. The second specification focuses on the physical incorporation of biofuels and examines the relationships among fossil fuel stocks, TdB, and the integration of low-carbon fuels into the energy mix.
Variance decomposition shows that diesel is the main factor influencing TdB issuance (19.14%), followed by ethanol (12.75%) and distillates (4.51%). Agricultural commodity prices have a smaller but growing impact (soy: 2.94%, palm: 4.44%, rapeseed: 3.51%). The incorporation of low-carbon fuels remains primarily determined by fossil fuel inventories, especially gasoline (11.59%) and distillates (7.28%).
This study provides new evidence on the interaction between agricultural commodities prices, fossil fuels, and regulatory mechanisms, highlighting how RED measures respond to market fluctuations and contribute to the broader challenges of the energy transition.
期刊介绍:
Encouraging a transition to a sustainable energy future is imperative for our world. Technologies that enable this shift in various sectors like transportation, heating, and power systems are of utmost importance. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments welcomes papers focusing on a range of aspects and levels of technological advancements in energy generation and utilization. The aim is to reduce the negative environmental impact associated with energy production and consumption, spanning from laboratory experiments to real-world applications in the commercial sector.