Integration of kinetics parameters and risk models for nitrite exposure risk assessment in fermented sausages during shelf-life: Development of modular process risk model based on Monte-Carlo simulation

This study presents a comprehensive kinetic and thermodynamic analysis of nitrite degradation during the storage of fermented and non-fermented (control) sausages at various temperatures. The research integrated kinetic parameters into calculation of the estimated daily intake (EDI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) index for nitrite consumption in children and adults. This integration was accomplished by using the Modular Process Risk Model (MPRM) and Monte Carlo simulation, supplemented by Bayesian analysis to validate the reliability of the results. For children at the 95th percentile, the control sample had an HQ index of 0.835, whereas fermented samples showed significantly lower indices ranging from 0.203 to 0.252. In the case of adults, the control sample's HQ index at the 95th percentile is recorded at 0.179, while the fermented samples demonstrate markedly lower values, ranging from 0.043 to 0.054. These findings indicate that consumption of fermented sausage samples substantially mitigates the risk associated with nitrite compared to non-fermented sausages.