Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the ecological civilization in the Yangtze River economic belt

The pursuit of the ecological civilization embodies the strategy of China for sustainable development and the harmonious coexistence of humans and nature. The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) serves as a critical region for this initiative. Although prior studies have assessed spatiotemporal differentiation and subsystem coordination in the ecological civilization development process in the YREB, revealing regional trends, municipal-scale dynamics and heterogeneity in development patterns remain underexplored. In this study, 118 YREB cities are explored, and a novel weight calculation method that combines a genetic algorithm with a dynamic deviation maximization model (GA-DM) is introduced to ensure objectivity. The ecological civilization progress index (ECPI) is established on the basis of Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM) theory, and a three-dimensional indicator system covering environmental, economic, and social dimensions is applied. The system incorporates remote sensing data, including net primary productivity, nighttime light index, and greenhouse gas emission data, to address traditional data limitations. The Getis-Ord Gi*, coupling coordination degree, and RFA-SHAP methods are applied to examine spatiotemporal differentiation, coupling coordination trends, and key influencing factors from 2013 to 2022. The results revealed that (1) the ECPI increased significantly, but the growth rates fluctuated and declined over time, revealing a “higher in the east, lower in the west” pattern, with a widening east-west gap; (2) the coupling coordination levels improved, with narrowing regional disparities, although these levels lagged in southwestern border cities; (3) the key factors influencing ecological civilization development in the YREB were initially led by economic subsystem, with this influence diminishing as the social subsystem gained strength and the environmental subsystem remained weak; and (4) primary drivers of ecological civilization progress in cities evolved distinctly, with shifts toward economy-environment-driven factors in eastern economic cities, mixed-type factors in central cities, and environment-driven factors in western cities, revealing pronounced regional heterogeneity. These drivers exhibit varied temporal and spatial impacts across the YREB. These findings reveal key influencing factors and regional disparities, providing a basis for formulating differentiated policies.